I remember reading as a child a book which must have been written in the early twentieth century. I can recall neither the title nor the plot, but what has stayed with me was a remark made by an adult character in the book to the child-protagonists, to the effect that, unimaginable as it might seem, the British Empire would one day be a thing of the past.
Given that we were then living through the ongoing moves towards colonial independence, two things struck me forcibly. The first was that this ‘unimaginable’ event was coming true, and the second was that therefore other such changes as would seem unimaginable in the present might be just as possible in the future.
And it is that sense of ‘unimaginable possibilities’ that I feel when looking at where we are now. Everyone on this planet has grown up with the ‘normality’ of Western dominance. This has been most obvious economically, but it has also been true industrially, and, even more importantly, intellectually, culturally and scientifically.
I say more importantly, however, because economic downturns can come and go. The crisis of the ‘Great Depression’ gave way to a period of sustained economic boom and prosperity which might itself have seemed ‘unimaginable’ at the time. And the same could perhaps be true in the present economic climate. Western nations have maintained high levels of domestic product and living standards despite competition with one another and with the economies which emerged in the Far East during the post-war years.
It might reasonably be doubted whether all can have such generous slices of cake in a world of limited physical resources. This is why there can be no certainty that the living standards to which we have become accustomed can be made universal. But it is not necessarily the case that a global economy must always have great disparities of prosperity, and therefore the economic rise of the East need not entail the economic decline of the West.
What is in prospect however, is not merely a shift in the economic balance of power but in the vitality of civilizations.
At its most basic, this may simply mean that the West as a whole, including the United States of America, may be about to go through on an even larger scale what Great Britain went through in the 1950s and 60s, namely an abrupt transition from being the key world power to an international bit-player. That, it must be said, is a process from which the British are still recovering, and which has yet to be fully played out. Our privileged position in the UN Security Council, for example, is beginning to look as anomalous as the position of Anglican bishops in our own House of Lords. The time cannot be far off when embarrassing questions begin to be put.
What is harder to imagine, however, yet is surely possible, is that the entire Western world faces the same situation —where, for example, a heavily indebted US, whose dollar no longer commands respect and which can no longer afford to maintain its armed forces (remember the rusting Russian submarines of the 1990s), is simply forced to take a back-seat in the decision-making councils of the world.
Yet even this is not my ‘worst case’ scenario, for it is possible to cope with a variety of outside threats, so long as one is inwardly strong. My real worry is that the Western world will be surpassed by the East not only economically but culturally. And the danger here, I believe, would come from an intellectual decline of the West, manifesting itself through a decline in cultural vitality and scientific endeavour.